Brace for New Mexico's gubernatorial race to become negative and far more intense now that Republican John Dendahl has entered the fray, state political pundits said Monday.

While Dendahl -- who replaced the lesser-known and milder-mannered J.R. Damron -- will campaign seriously, the experts say, Richardson enjoys the power of the incumbency, a $6 million war chest and a head start in the advertising war.

In fact, some, such as political blogger Joe Monahan, calls Dendahl a "sacrificial wolf," as opposed to a "sacrificial lamb."

"He's not going to win," Monahan said in an interview Monday. "But he's going to go down with a fight and with spirit. ... They'll measure his success by how much he cripples the governor on the national stage."

Richardson is considering a run for the presidency in 2008, but Dendahl denies that his purpose is to ruin such a bid.

Republicans, Monahan said, needed someone to add excitement to the race. "They didn't want a country-club Republican," he said. "They needed someone to pump up the enthusiasm."

Some Republicans had been complaining that Damron hadn't been aggressive enough in his campaign and that his fundraising abilities were no match for Richardson.

Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff said any candidate would have trouble defeating an incumbent with as much money as Richardson has. "He's already advertising on television," he said.

Because both Richardson and Dendahl have political records, the negative advertising on both sides will be harsh, Sanderoff said. "This race is going to get nasty," he said.

"The big question is whether Dendahl has a commitment for money from the (Republican National Committee)," Sanderoff said. He said Dendahl doesn't have to match Richardson's money, but probably needs about $2 million to run a credible race.

Another question is whether Dendahl, known for his sharp tongue against political foes, will be able to temper his style to appear more "gubernatorial," Sanderoff said.

Up to last Wednesday, Damron had every intention of staying in the race against incumbent Gov. Bill Richardson, he said in an interview Monday in the south-side Santa Fe office he'd recently rented for a local campaign headquarters.

On Wednesday morning, Dendahl called to talk about the possibility of Damron stepping aside for a more aggressive candidate to take on Richardson.

"John had talked to party leaders," Damron said. "The absolute goal here is to win back the state for the Republican Party, but more importantly for the people of New Mexico."

That conversation resulted in an Albuquerque meeting that afternoon. Present were Damron and his wife, Barbara Damron, Dendahl, state Republican chairman Allen Weh, party executive director Marta Kramer and former Republican National Committeeman Mickey Barnett, a longtime Dendahl ally.

By the end of the day, J.R. Damron would be convinced he was not the best candidate for that task.

Dendahl on Monday said he had been hearing talk among Republicans in recent weeks about the possibility of Damron withdrawing.

He said Barnett had called him recently saying there was a "groundswell of support" to field a new candidate -- someone like Dendahl.

Last Tuesday, Dendahl said, he got a call from U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici's chief of staff, Steve Bell, who said Barnett and Domenici had discussed replacing Damron with Dendahl. Bell told Dendahl that Domenici liked the idea.

President Bush earlier this year nominated Barnett to be a governor of the U.S. Postal Service. Domenici is sponsoring Barnett in the Senate, which must approve the nomination.

Like Dendahl, Barnett has made enemies inside the GOP. He was defeated in 2004 for re-election to his National Committee post by state Rep. George Buffett. Barnett is a lawyer and former state senator who in recent years has worked as a lobbyist at the Legislature. He angered some Republicans when he lobbied for drug-law reforms pushed by former Gov. Gary Johnson.

Damron said he wasn't pressured by anyone to leave the ticket. He described Dendahl as a longtime friend and said he intends to actively campaign for Dendahl.

Both Damrons described the meeting in Albuquerque as cordial and professional, even though, as Barbara Damron said, "We were tackling a very painful, emotional topic."

Dendahl said Weh cautioned that Damron couldn't just hand off the baton. The chairman said he'd have to talk to former Republican governors Johnson and Garrey Carruthers, as well as to the GOP lieutenant governor nominee, state Sen. Sue Beffort-Wilson.

The formal decision to nominate Dendahl came Saturday at a meeting of the state Central Committee, which had been scheduled previously.

Why the move against Damron?

Fundraising had been a major issue. In early May, reports filed with the secretary of state showed Richardson had raised almost $4 million compared with less than $300,000 for Damron. About two-thirds of Damron's total was from himself.

By June, Richardson's cash on hand stood at nearly $6 million.

Some GOP leaders grumbled that Damron wasn't being aggressive enough in his quest to unseat the incumbent.

Damron on Monday agreed that his temperament is perhaps not suited for an aggressive campaign. "John (Dendahl), in this situation, is much better," he said.

Barbara Damron noted her husband is a physician. "Doctors are used to giving bad news in a thoughtful manner, holding back," she said. "A physician doesn't relish giving bad news to a patient, or to Bill Richardson, about himself."

The Damrons in May began hearing rumors that Damron might withdraw. Especially hurtful were rumors that the Damrons were having some kind of personal problems that might force the candidate out of the race. The couple on Monday strongly denied this was the case.

"I kept hearing all this talk that he wasn't being aggressive enough, but when it came to actually challenging Bill Richardson, nobody stepped up to the plate but my husband," Barbara Damron said. "Others were slinking off and hiding under their chairs. I told them, either come do it better yourself, give us money or shut up."

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037

or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com.

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