Report: Effect of warming to hit poor hardest

Warmer winters and hotter summers. More pests and less trout. The increased spread of infectious diseases.

And the people suffering most will be low-income families, the bulk of New Mexico’s population.

Those are a few of the predictions for the state’s near future in an interagency report released Monday on how greenhouse gases will affect New Mexico in the next halfcentury . “It’s a very serious problem not just for New Mexico, but the whole planet,” said Jim Norton, director of the state Environmental Protection Division. “Scientists tell us we don’t have much time to reduce greenhouse gases.”

Gases such as carbon dioxide and methane have increased steadily in the last century, largely due to human activities. The gases are linked to a rise in global and regional temperatures. Worldwide, scientists have predicted continued warming will lead to flooding and extreme weather patterns among other environmental changes. Scientists already are seeing a decline in native fish species, birds and amphibians linked to higher temperatures.

Staff from seven state agencies reviewed the latest peerreviewed scientific studies on how climate change is affecting the world, the West and New Mexico in particular. The picture they paint in the 47-page report isn’t pretty. The assessment was put together as part of Gov. Bill Richardson’s greenhouse-gasreduction order issued in June.

“We have a responsibility to act now and take action before it is too late,” Richardson said in a statement.

Another governor-appointed task force — a group of 40 farmers, scientists, environmentalists and business leaders — is brainstorming ideas for decreasing New Mexico’s production of greenhouse gases. The task force meets this week in Las Cruces to continue narrowing a list of 200 ideas for meeting Richardson’s targets for greenhouse-gas reduction. The goal is to reduce statewide emissions of greenhouse gases to 2000 levels by 2012. Another reduction to 10 percent below 2000 levels is the aim by 2020 and a total reduction of 75 percent below 2000 levels by 2050 is the final step. The group’s recommendations are expected by the end of the year.

The group is zeroing in on methods that make the most sense economically and in the amount of greenhouse gases reduced, Norton said.

New Mexico also is part of the 11-state Western Regional Air Partnership, which is working on regional solutions.

Among the New Mexico report’s findings:

Air pollution will increase as drought and dryness drive wildfires and dust storms.

Outbreaks of hantavirus , plague and dengue fever among other infectious diseases may be more frequent.

Subsistence farming, livestock grazing and hunting will be disrupted.

Between 17 to 72 percent of suitable habitat for trout in the Rocky Mountains will be lost.

Health and economic impacts from climate change will be hardest on low-income families because they are less likely to have health insurance and would face higher energy and food costs.

In an already dry state, global warming’s effect on moisture is a prime concern.

Charles Keller, a retired atmospheric computer-modeling specialist for Los Alamos National Laboratory, said New Mexico is probably already in the middle of a somewhat normal 20-year dry spell.

Global warming won’t help, Keller said. Agriculture will suffer most, no matter the scenario, he predicted. “Sociologically , there’s no problem for cities,” Keller said. “They can buy water. It’s the farmers from California to New Mexico that will lose out.”

“We should look at how we can be more water-wise — both cities and farmers,” Keller said.

Contact Staci Matlock

at 470-9843 or smatlock@sfnewmexican .com.